“2022 – the best year for shipping since 2007?” ABGSC Shipping analyst Petter Haugen shares his thoughts on the sector in advance of our upcoming shipping seminar

Where is the sector at right now?
“The different segments in the shipping sector are at very different places currently. While container carriers are still earning more than ever before, crude tanker rates are at zero. Other segments, such as car carriers and bulkers, are somewhere in between. Car carriers seem to follow the container market, although without the same pricing power, since car carriers have more volume on longer-term contracts compared with container liners. In the dry bulk market, less seems to be more these days, as rates for Supramaxes are currently twice as high as the rates for Capesizes, which can carry three times as much cargo. In our view, these anomalies – i.e. tanker rates at zero and large tankers at a huge discount compared to smaller ships – should correct themselves within 2022. During our upcoming shipping seminar, we will ask our panellists to respond to this view”.
 
Can you tell us your thoughts regarding the impact of the war in Ukraine?
“The war in Ukraine will inflict both short- and long-term consequences on the shipping sector. In the short-term, Ukrainian and Russian exports are at risk, which could remove sizeable volumes from the seaborne market, as the two countries together export ~16% of the global seaborne supply of grains and roughly 10% of the trade in energy carriers, including coal, gas and oil. From the long-term perspective, it already seems plausible to think that Russian exports will need to travel further to find buyers; at the moment Indian and Chinese buyers are purchasing Russian oil at a 20% discount which earlier was exported to Europe”.
 
What are the most interesting company(s) to follow right now?
“At the start of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, while other segments saw rates in free fall, spot rates in the crude tanker segments increased to an all-time-high of USD300,000/day, as tankers began operating as storage, rather than transportation, assets. On the other side of the pandemic, the situation has been the opposite: most segments are now earning good money, while brokers in the tanker market are reporting spot rates at zero. In ABGSC’s view, this will soon turn again, which makes companies such as Frontline, DHT, Hunter and Okeanis potentially strong performers for the remainder of 2022″.
 
ABGSC’s Shipping seminar “2022 – the best year from shipping since 2007?” will be held virtually on 5 April. ABGSC clients can access the full agenda for the seminar here.
RSVP: invitations@abgsc.no
 
*Please note, the seminar is open to clients only.