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This article has been prepared by ABG Private Banking, a division within ABG Sundal Collier. ABG Sundal Collier is the marketing name referring to all or any of ABG Sundal Collier ASA, ABG Sundal Collier AB or ABG Sundal Collier Limited and any of their affiliated or associated companies and their directors, officers, representatives and employees.
The start of 2026 has been anything but calm. An open war of words between the Trump administration and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, violent protests in Iran, and new geopolitical tensions in both Latin America and Europe have dominated the news flow. Yet financial markets have taken it all in their stride. How should investors interpret these signals? Jonas Andersson, CIO at ABG Private Banking, reflects on market reactions and his outlook going forward.
An open dispute between the Trump administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has featured prominently in the headlines – how does this affect the market and perceptions of monetary policy independence?
“My immediate reaction is that Trump’s actions are both clumsy and tactically misguided, while Powell has handled the situation professionally by clearly standing up for the Federal Reserve and its independence. Trump’s statements should in my view primarily be seen in a political context, where he wants to project decisiveness ahead of the midterm elections and single out clear opponents.
Given that Powell’s term expires in May, it would in practice have been sufficient for Trump to focus on appointing a successor. My assessment is that the Fed will continue to act as the independent institution it is, despite political pressure. Market reactions are also telling. The US ten-year Treasury yield has remained stable, and expectations of two interest rate cuts this year are still in place. This suggests that investors do not currently see any acute politicisation of monetary policy.
ABG Private Banking has held exposure to gold in its portfolios since inception, as protection against political and monetary uncertainty. Even after the roughly 65% rise in gold prices during 2025, I continue to see reasons to maintain this exposure. This line of reasoning is developed further in the latest edition of The Navigator, ABG Private Banking’s strategy and asset allocation report.”
Geopolitical tensions are intensifying in several parts of the world, yet equity markets have held up – how does that add up?
“Geopolitics is in my view notoriously difficult to price. Markets often react only when events have clear and measurable economic consequences – through energy markets, trade, or financial flows. Take Venezuela as an example. The country has large oil reserves, but production has fallen sharply over the past 20 years. Even if the US is now signalling more clearly in line with the Monroe Doctrine*, the direct impact on the oil market seems to be limited, particularly at a time when global markets are already experiencing some oversupply in 2026.
At the same time, I see a broader geopolitical shift taking place in the background. China’s trade with South America has doubled over the past decade and has overtaken that of the United States, which in my view creates tensions but not necessarily immediate market reactions. The resilience of equity markets also reflects, I believe, the notion that investors are currently focusing more on economic growth, earnings and liquidity than on geopolitical rhetoric. That said, I find it difficult to see geopolitical risk diminishing during 2026.”
Overall, with political turbulence and rising geopolitical tensions – does this affect your market view for 2026?
“No, not in any significant way. On the contrary, I believe events of this kind can create buying opportunities. The fundamental factors highlighted in ABG Private Banking’s latest strategy and asset allocation report, The Navigator, remain largely intact: high productivity, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, solid earnings growth and sustained valuation multiples.
Based on these assumptions, I continue to see potential in US equities. At the same time, I believe there are conditions in place for the economic cycle to surprise on the upside, which would benefit more cyclical regions such as the Nordic countries. I am therefore also positive on Nordic equities at this stage.”
* The 1823 U.S. foreign policy principle stating that the Americas were no longer open to European colonisation or interference, and the United States would refrain from involvement in European affairs.
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No information contained in this text should be interpreted as, and is not intended to constitute, an invitation or recommendation to make any type of investment or enter into any other transactions. The opinions expressed herein reflects the view of the author at the time and may be subject to change. The information in this text is of a general nature and has/have no regard to specific investment objectives and the financial situation or needs of any specific recipient. The information should not be considered personal advice. Nor should the content be regarded as investment research or an investment recommendation. Investments in financial instruments involve financial risk. You are solely responsible for the risks associated with your investments and must therefore independently familiarise yourself with the characteristics and risks of the financial instruments. Adequate and professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment decisions. ABG Sundal Collier disclaims all liability for direct or indirect loss or damage arising from the use of the information provided above.
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